Baseball From Beantown

    About a month ago, I released my first writeup on my initial stuff model Heat+. Since then, in between class and spring break, I've made some major upgrades and fundamental changes to the model that have greatly improved whiff rate prediction power. I've also renamed the model, from Heat+ to Whiff+ because I think that sounds better and is more descriptive of what the model tracks. In terms of future changes, I would like to implement a location aspect to my model, as fastballs at the top of the zone are much more effective.  Fundamental Change      The biggest change made comes from what outcome the model is being trained to look for. Stuff+, Heat+ and PitchingBot are trained on Run Value, meaning it looks at the true outcome of the pitch. Whiff+ is trained Whiff Probability, meaning it looks at whether or not the batter made contact with the pitch. This removes a lot of external factors and focuses more on the physical qualities of the pitch and its a...

          A few weeks ago, Camden Quick, who I will be interning with on the cape this summer, developed his own Stuff+ model to use in college ball. Taking after him, I’ve been working on my own pitch model. This is the first iteration of the model, and I plan on creating a better viewing application to go alongside with. With that being said, here is the preliminary version of Heat+.      Heat+ is a pitch model designed only for fastballs at the moment. Heat+ was created in R, using XGBoost’s gradient boosting techniques to capture more. I took fastball data from 2023, 2024, and 2025, giving my model 3 different seasons to work with. The model is trained to predict the run value of a certain pitch. To define the run value, I used statcasts built in run value metric, “delta_run_exp”. This is the change in run expectancy from before the pitch to after the pitch. For a more detailed explanation on how pitch models such as this are made, read ...

  We'll continue our offseason grades with the National League Central, where the Cubs look to overtake the Brewers for the top spot. But watch out for a pair of teams who look to jump into contention in the expanded wild card era.  Chicago Cubs: A The Cubs had an impressive offseason despite losing one of the best players in baseball in Kyle Tucker. Alex Bregman was the headline signing, and will provide right handed power to go along with Michael Busch. His leadership skills are also a major plus to a young Cubs team. Trading for Edward Cabrera gives the Cubs one of the highest upside rotations, albeit one that comes with major health questions. Justin Steele will return at some point in the first half, but he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2023. Cabrera has a lengthy injury history, and rookie talent Cade Horton missed the Cubs wild card round. The Cubs return breakout starter Matthew Boyd, as well as Shota Imanaga, who accepted the qualifying offer from the Cubs. The...

Wi th pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in just a few days, the offseason is all but over. There are still a handful of high impact free agents left on the market, and late trades are always certain, but it's just about time to hand out some offseason grades. I'll start here with the NL East, which is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Atlanta Braves: B The Braves signed one of my favorite players heading into the offseason in utility man Mike Yastrzemski, who can play all over the diamond. They pair him with another great utility man in Mauricio Dubon, giving them one of the best benches in the league. The injury of Ha-Seong Kim hurts, but Dubon and Jorge Mateo should do well enough at SS until Kim gets back. I like Robert Suarez as a pitcher, but giving him a 3 year deal is certainly an interesting choice, especially for a 34 year old reliever who throws his fastballs 75% of the time. The biggest question is if the Braves rotation can ...

        All in all, the Red Sox bullpen has performed well above expectations this season. Anchored by offseason acquisition Aroldis Chapman turning back the clock a decade or so, the Sox have gotten good performance from a number of relievers, with Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert, Justin Wilson, and Steven Matz all performing well. Despite this, the Red Sox bullpen has seemed rather top heavy at times. While there is reason for optimism, such as the imminent return of Justin Slaten and the hope Jordan Hicks can find something, too many times has the Red Sox bullpen depth cost them games. A prime example comes in the form of Saturdays 7-5 win over Miami. With a 5 run lead in the 9th, Isiah Campbell could only record 2 outs while allowing 3 runs and forcing Cora to turn to Chapman with the tying run at the plate. This led to Chapman being unavailable to pitch in Sunday's game, where the Red Sox blew a 3-2 lead in the 9th in a game they would lose 5-3. We've ...

          After homering in back to back games this week against the Astro's, Romans triple slash sat at an impressive .286/.406/.451. Yet somehow you feel there is more in the tank? Coming into this series, Anthony had hit just 2 homeruns in his first 200 PAs. And so, despite the otherworldly on base ability, you wouldn't be wrong to say the best is yet to come from the 21 yr old.       According to baseball savant, Roman Anthony has a pull air %, or how many fly balls Anthony pulls, of just 13.6%. Well below the average 16.7%. Moreover, Anthonys 52% GB rate and 39.7% Topped rate indicate the slugger has yet to establish himself as a consistent linedrive and homerun threat. This may be in part to his surprising struggles with pitches over the heart of the plate, notching a -5 run value on such pitches. This should improve as Anthony faces more pitching, but could be accelerated if he were to swing the bat more. His zone swing% of 5...