Baseball From Beantown

          A few weeks ago, Camden Quick, who I will be interning with on the cape this summer, developed his own Stuff+ model to use in college ball. Taking after him, I’ve been working on my own pitch model. This is the first iteration of the model, and I plan on creating a better viewing application to go alongside with. With that being said, here is the preliminary version of Heat+.      Heat+ is a pitch model designed only for fastballs at the moment. Heat+ was created in R, using XGBoost’s gradient boosting techniques to capture more. I took fastball data from 2023, 2024, and 2025, giving my model 3 different seasons to work with. The model is trained to predict the run value of a certain pitch. To define the run value, I used statcasts built in run value metric, “delta_run_exp”. This is the change in run expectancy from before the pitch to after the pitch. For a more detailed explanation on how pitch models such as this are made, read ...

  We'll continue our offseason grades with the National League Central, where the Cubs look to overtake the Brewers for the top spot. But watch out for a pair of teams who look to jump into contention in the expanded wild card era.  Chicago Cubs: A The Cubs had an impressive offseason despite losing one of the best players in baseball in Kyle Tucker. Alex Bregman was the headline signing, and will provide right handed power to go along with Michael Busch. His leadership skills are also a major plus to a young Cubs team. Trading for Edward Cabrera gives the Cubs one of the highest upside rotations, albeit one that comes with major health questions. Justin Steele will return at some point in the first half, but he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2023. Cabrera has a lengthy injury history, and rookie talent Cade Horton missed the Cubs wild card round. The Cubs return breakout starter Matthew Boyd, as well as Shota Imanaga, who accepted the qualifying offer from the Cubs. The...

Wi th pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in just a few days, the offseason is all but over. There are still a handful of high impact free agents left on the market, and late trades are always certain, but it's just about time to hand out some offseason grades. I'll start here with the NL East, which is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Atlanta Braves: B The Braves signed one of my favorite players heading into the offseason in utility man Mike Yastrzemski, who can play all over the diamond. They pair him with another great utility man in Mauricio Dubon, giving them one of the best benches in the league. The injury of Ha-Seong Kim hurts, but Dubon and Jorge Mateo should do well enough at SS until Kim gets back. I like Robert Suarez as a pitcher, but giving him a 3 year deal is certainly an interesting choice, especially for a 34 year old reliever who throws his fastballs 75% of the time. The biggest question is if the Braves rotation can ...