A note on the pitchers battling for a spot in the Red Sox bullpen

Josh Winckowski will look to regain his spot in the Sox bullpen, 

Last season, the Red Sox bullpen had the 7th worst ERA in baseball, allowing the 3rd most hits, only the lowly White Sox and Rockies allowed more hits. To try and fix this problem, the Red Sox have brought with them 30 pitchers vying for maybe 7 spots in the Red Sox bullpen. Of those 30, I believe only 4 are locks to crack the opening day roster. Those 4 are: Liam Hendricks, Justin Slaten, Aroldis Chapman, and Garret Whitlock. 

That means 25 pitchers are fighting for 3 spots. Of those 25, I believe only 12-15 of them have a real shot at breaking camp with the team. A few (Chris Murphy and Luis Perales) are expected to miss all of 2025. A handful haven't performed well enough in AAA, or haven't even pitched in AAA, to warrant a realistic shot at the big league level. Here's a brief note on all the pitchers who I believe have a chance of making the big league bullpen.

Josh Winckowski, RHP: Winckowski threw the most innings out of everyone who I believe is not guaranteed a roster spot with 76. He's coming off a tough 2024 bouncing between the bullpen and rotation, but Cora hopes a firm bullpen role will take him back to 2023, where he threw to a 2.88 ERA out of the bullpen.

Brennan Bernardino, LHP: Much like Winckowski, Bernardino will look to bounce back from a tough 2024 and regain his 2023 form. Bernardino was dominant in the first half last year, with a 1.80 ERA in his first 32 innings, but really struggled after the All-Star break, having an ERA above 8 in his final 19 innings. 

Greg Weissert, RHP: A complete opposite from Bernardino, Weissert struggled in the first half, leading to a late July demotion to AAA. Once he returned to the major league club though, Weissert was dominant, not allowing an earned run in his final 16 innings pitched.  

Luis Guerrero, RHP: Luis Guerrero is my personal favorite arm in this bullpen. The 24 year old threw 10 MLB innings last September, but looked extremely impressive, allowing just 6 hits and striking out 9. He has a fastball that sits 97, which lead to an incredible 13.09 K/9 in AAA last year. Don't be surprised if he's eventually closing games for the Sox. 

Zack Kelly, RHP: People within the Red Sox organization love Kelly's stuff, but he has struggled to stay healthy and consistent in recent seasons. The righty had a solid year last year, with a 3.97 ERA across 56 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers were both career bests, but he allowed much harder contact. If he can put it all together, he has the arsenal to be an effective late inning guy for Alex Cora

Justin Wilson, LHP: Wilson was Breslow's first signing this offseason, agreeing to a 1 year deal early in November. The 12 year MLB vet will come in as one of the few lefty arms in contention. Wilson really struggled last year with the Reds, with a ERA above 5 in 46 innings. He has a solid fastball and a plus plus slider, but he allowed pretty loud contact last year. He'll have to limit the barrels this season to stick.

Jovani Moran, LHP: The Red Sox acquired Moran this offseason from the Twins in exchange for minor leaguer Mickey Gasper. Moran last pitched in 2023, sitting out 2024 following Tommy John. After a great 2022 in which Moran had a 1.78 FIP across 40 innings, he regressed heavily in 2023, ballooning to a 3.82 FIP and 5.31 ERA. If Moran can get his changeup back to where it was in 2022, and develop at least one above average secondary, he could be effective. 

Adam Ottavino, RHP: Red Sox fans should be familiar with the 14 year veteran, as he was a key bullpen arm in the 2021 ALCS run. Since then, he's spent 3 seasons with the Mets, throwing over 55 innings with an ERA below 4.50 each year. Since that year with the Sox, he's become much more of a 2 pitch guy, relying heavily on his Sweeper and Sinker. The stuff is still there, so don't be surprised if a strong spring pushes Ottavino into the bullpen.  

Robert Stock, RHP: Stock, 35, returns to the MLB after spending time pitching in Korea and Mexico, where he recently won the triple crown. In his time in Mexico, Stock drastically lowered his arm slot, now throwing from a similar angle as Weissert. Don't be surprised if Andrew Bailey inserts a sweeper into the mix. 

Matt Moore, LHP: The Sox signed Moore to a minor league deal on Sunday in wake of Zach Penrod's injury. Moore, a former #1 overall prospect, struggled early in his career, but had a solid resurgence after a move to the bullpen. In 126 innings in 2022 and 2023, Moore had a 2.20 ERA and an incredible 191 ERA+. While Moore struggled in 2024 (5.30 ERA in 48 innings with the Angels), his stuff was pretty similar to what it was in 2023. The Red Sox can hope 2024 was a blip and a return to 2023 form is in order for the veteran. 

Michael Fulmer, RHP: Fulmer, once a rookie of the year winner with the Tigers in 2016, signed a rare 2 year minor league deal with the club last offseason as he rehabbed from Tommy John. The once highly touted starting pitcher prospect has been solid since a move to the bullpen in 2021. In 191 innings of relief, Fulmer threw to a 3.55 ERA and a 3.70 FIP. At minimum, Fulmer will be a AAA depth guy who Cora has already praised for his leadership and mentoring abilities. 

Zach Penrod, LHP: Penrod made his debut for the Red Sox in a short, 4 inning cameo for the team in September. While there, Penrod showcased his 97 MPH fastball that played well AA and AAA last year. In 62 minor league innings, Penrod had 13 K/9, although he struggled in his stint in AAA with a 5.93 ERA. He'll likely have to improve his secondaries to have success in the bigs. 

Hunter Dobbins, RHP: Dobbins was the Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year last year, having a 3.08 ERA across 25 starts in AA and AAA. Dobbins doesn't have the best strikeout stuff, but he limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground fairly well. He's only 25, and his fastball sits 95 but lacks life. If he can improve his secondaries, he could feature as a mid-level starter, but he'll likely end up a multi-inning reliever in the future.