Which Brayan Bello are we going to see this year?

 

    Brayan Bello came into 2024 as the clear-cut number 1 on a young, unproved starting rotation. After signing a 6 year, 55 million dollar extension, Bello was supposed to be the leader of the staff. This year, MLB.com projects Bello as the number 5 starter, barely edging Kutter Crawford for the last rotation spot. So what happened?

    Bello's 2024 was not as different from his 2023 as it may seem. He pitched around the same amount of innings, had a similar ERA around 4.40, and actually struck out one batter per nine more than he did in his "breakout" 2024. The differences come in the contact he allowed. His groundball rate dropped from 56% to 50%, still in the 86th percentile but a noticeable dip. The big change was his linedrive rate increasing from 14% to 21%, back where it was in 2022. But this still doesn't really explain why Bello was so much worse in 2024. The increased linedrive rate actually led to a lower hard-hit rate, by about 5%. His BABIP was around the same as it was in 2023, and his batting average against was actually lower. 

    The problem can be found when looking at Bello's arsenal. His sinker, his most used pitch, was noticeably worse this year than last. Batters hit .307 of the sinker last year, as it induced less groundballs and many more linedrives. The pitch lost nearly 2 inches of vertical drop this year, and caused significantly less outside zone swings. We can hope, and assume, that this was the key area Bello and Andrew Bailey looked to address this offseason. 

    There is lots of reason for optimism for Bello in 2025 though. His slider, now his 3rd most used pitch, has increased in velocity each year, while being hit less and less. While it is still probably a below average - average pitch, some offseason work could turn that into a dangerous 3rd option. His changeup is still one of the best pitches in the league, inducing an incredible .175 avg against, with an ops of just .585. Bello seemed to be putting it together late last year, as his final 16 starts turned out a 3.66 ERA and 3.67 FIP. 

    Possibly the biggest reason for hope comes not from Bello, but from his supporting cast. Bello still sports a well above average groundball rate, but the Red Sox committed the 2nd most errors in the league last year, leading to more of those groundballs resulting in hits or errors. With the addition of Alex Bregman and the return of Trevor Story, the Red Sox infield defense projects to be much better, especially up the middle. With all that in mind, theres reason to believe 2025 might finally be the long awaited true breakout year for Brayan Bello.