Who should start the season as the #5 starter?

    With Alex Cora confirming Kutter Crawford will begin the year on the injured list and with Brayan Bello's opening day status in doubt, a hole has opened in the Red Sox rotation for the #5 starter job. Crochet, Buehler, Houck, and Giolito will likely operate in spots 1-4, but the Red Sox, facing a heavy early schedule, will need a 5th starter as to not wear out the bullpen early. In my eyes, there are only 3 candidates for the job, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell. 

    Last season, Criswell was brought in as a AAA depth option for the Red Sox, but quickly found himself thrust into the rotation due to a string of injuries early. Criswell impressed for the Red Sox, throwing to a 3.49 ERA in 16 starts. While his FIP of 4.21 indicates some luck, his 6.8 BB% and 51.6 GB% helped him prevent runners from getting on base and stay an effective contact-first pitcher. Criswell has far and away the most experience out of the bunch, as Priester and Fitts have combined for just 70 MLB innings. It is worth noting that Criswell struggled in his most recent spring training appearance against the Blue Jays, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits against mostly starters. Stuff+ doesn't love Criswell's arsenal outside his slider (which hitters hit .330 off last year), but he is able to locate well enough to induce weak contact mostly into the ground. Criswell, like Fitts and Priester, still has minor-league options available.  

    Richard Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo trade, pitched well in a September cameo. In 20.2 innings, Fitts allowed 4 runs while striking out 9. His 7.5% AAA walk rate is somewhat of a concern, and should be something for pitching coach Andrew Bailey to keep an eye on. So far this spring, Fitts has impressed Red Sox coaches with an uptick in velocity. His fastball has averaged 97 mph in 2 spring training appearances, up from the 94 mph clip he sat last year. Fitts has also worked on his slider over the offseason, adding some velocity and giving it a tighter movement profile in hopes to differentiate it more from his sweeper. The key for Fitts will be working on getting deeper into games. He allowed a .188 avg and 0 earned runs his first time through the order last year, but a .288 avg and 4 earned runs his second and third time through as his hard hit rate ballooned from 13.8% to 38.3%. 

    Priester, acquired at the deadline last year from the Pirates, has long been a highly touted pitching prospect after being selected in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. Since then, he has struggled to maintain an MLB role and has not shown enough in AAA to warrant extensive time in the bigs. Priester excels as limiting walks and getting strikouts, but has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. In 109 chances, lefties hit .330 of Priester with 4 homeruns and 18 rbi. Like Fitts, Priester has worked hard in the offseason to add velocity. in 6.2 innings this spring, his sinker topped out at 97 while sitting 95, a major improved from the 93 he sat most of last year. Additionally, Priester has looked to cut his fastball out of his repertoire this season. Far and away his worst pitch, batters his .400 of the fastball with a swinging strike % of just 8.5% and a linedrive rate north of 40%. To replace this, Priester has toyed with a cutter this spring, a pitch that works better against lefties as it runs into their hands.

    After an impressive early spring, it would not be crazy to deem Priester the frontrunner, but I think Criswell's performance last year and MLB experience gives him a slight edge so far. If Priester, or Fitts, continue to impress while Criswell struggles through the rest of the spring, it would not be surprised to see either of them beat out the incumbent Criswell. That being said, a heavy workload to begin the season that sees the Red Sox playing 16 straight and 21 in the first 22 days means Cora could very well give all 3 spot starts to begin the year.