How worried should we be about the Red Sox slow starters?

 

    While Rafael Devers is getting the majority of the blame for the Red Sox slow start, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, and Ceddanne Rafeala are a combined 5-63 to begin the year. Those 4, plus Devers, are hitting .061 on the year. While stats at the start of the season are typically exaggerated and highlighted, this is not something that we can ignore. Here's whats been going on with those 5 hitters.

    Rafael Devers:

    Devers set the record with the most strikeouts in a teams first 5 games, going down 15 times in his 19 at-bats. It's one of the top stories in all of baseball, and for good reason. Going back to last season, Devers has 26 strikeouts in his last 9 games. He has 1 hit in that stretch. Much of what Devers has been dealing with comes down to his timing. His bat speed is down 2 mph from last year, and it shows. His 48% contact% is down nearly 30 points from his career average. He quite frankly just isn't hitting the ball, and when he does, it usually goes straight back. While this is definitely the worst of the worst for the Red Sox lineup, I would argue this isn't the most worrying of the bunch. Devers issues this year have nothing to do with plate discipline, which is usually what gets him. His chase rate is down 10%, and he's drawn a solid amount of walks and worked some good at-bats (albeit mostly ending in strikeouts). I don't think it's possible for a hitter like Devers to stay this way, maybe this off-day can calm him down and get him back into form, but don't look too deep into this start from the 2x silver slugger. A slow spring and long recovery, not to mention all the offseason drama, made this an extremely unusual spring for him, but its only a matter of time until he settles in to the DH role and rakes once again. 

Triston Casas:

    While Dever's strikeouts have hidden the struggles of Casas, the young slugger has had almost an equally bad start to the year. Through 17 at-bats, Casas has just 1 hit, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. Even worse, Casas has been chasing much more than usual, with a 31% chase rate up 10 points from his career average. He has yet to barrel up a ball this year, with his exit-velo down 10mph from his average. He's hit only 1 line drive in those 17 at-bats. Moreover, he just looks completely lost at the plate. Going off the eye-test, he's going up there without any sort of approach, he's getting behind in the count more often and chasing some god awful pitches and something needs to change if we want to compete this year. Cora gave Casas the day off yesterday, but he's expected to return to the lineup tomorrow with the righty Eflin going. I am more worried about Casas then Devers, especially with him coming off of a rough spring and a very weird year last season. 

Connor Wong:

    Wong spent much of the offseason working on his defense, and I'll give credit where credits due he's looked much better behind the plate, but his bat has not started as fast as his glove. Wong has just 1 hit in his first 16 at-bats, adding 5 strikeouts to the teams total. More importantly, Wong is 0-10 with runners in scoring position, with 1 walk and all 5 of those strikeouts coming with runners in scoring position. Wong, like Casas, has seen his chase rate up 5% compared to his career average. He's swinging at the first pitch nearly 50% of the time, resulting in him starting 0-1 nearly 70% of his plate appearances. Wong was never projected to add much with his bat, but with the way Abreu and Campbell have been swinging, we need Wong bringing in those situations. 

Trevor Story:

    Many hoped this would be the year Story finally gets back to form, but he has once again added next to nothing with his bat. At this point in his career, it's solely his defense that has kept him in Cora's lineup. Story has started the year with 2 hits and 6 strikeouts in 15 ABs. He's another Red Sox yet to barrel up a baseball yet. His outside the zone swing% has gone up nearly 20%, resulting in an average exit velo of 80mph, down 10mph from his average. Out of everyone on this team, Story needs a barrel the most. Even if its a hard linedrive right into a glove, we need to see that Story can still make hard contact. While his defense at short will keep him in the lineup, if Mayer gets going in AAA don't be surprised if Cora makes a change.

Ceddanne Rafaela:

    Early in the spring, I listed Rafaela as my top breakout candidate for the 2025 season. He showed major improvements and a new batting stance this spring, and the results were very good. It looked like Rafaela had finally gotten his plate discipline in control, and, more importantly, he was walking far more than he was striking out, something that was very needed for the sophomore. But a hot spring has not equalled a hot start, as Rafaela has started 1-15 with 0 walks and 3 strikeouts. Out of everyone though, Rafaela should definitely be the worst of your worries. His exit velo is up 2 mph from last season, and his expected batting average shows some unluckiness so far. The worrying part is that it looks like all that work to lower the chase rate this spring has gone out the window. Rafaela has an astonishing 76% chase rate this year. He is swinging at nearly 80% of the pitches he sees, and 23% of those swings are ending in strikes. While Rafaela has been putting the ball in play more than any of the aforementioned, we need to see that spring plate-discipline come back.