What's up with Ceddanne?

 

Alex Cora knows has a plan for Ceddanne Rafaela longterm

    After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too?

    The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside zone swing% is 20% above league average, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees outside the zone. 20% of the pitches he sees are low and out, and Ceddanne has chased that low outside pitch 42% of the time. Those 21 swings have resulted in 1 hard hit ball, 8 batted balls, an average exit velo of 77, an average launch angle of 8, and a 63% GB rate. Even then, Ceddanne has gotten lucky. Of those 8 batted balls, 4 have them have resulted in hits despite a .230 xBA on those batted balls. Ceddanne had the same problem last year, seeing a pitch in that area 24% of the time, chasing it 46% of the time, and whiffing 49% of the time. 

    Once again, the chase rate is what is holding Ceddanne back. He has dropped his K% to below league average and his walk rate has gone up 4%, usually a good sign for a young hitter. His hard hit% is up, his barrel% is around the same, but all that is mitigated by his inability to lay off the junk. The biggest worry is that most of these swings are coming early in the count. In 2 strike counts, he is hitting .257/.316/.314. Not great, but not horrible either. To contrast, he's hitting .182/.357/.182 when ahead in the count. 

    It's not hard to see a silver lining to this horrid start at the plate, as Ceddanne once again looks like a platinum glove caliber defender at a premium position. But with Roman Anthony having his second 2 HR game of the season a few nights ago, it's hard to justify keeping his bat in the lineup. Ceddanne would be an expensive utility guy, but it appears that that might be his ceiling. 

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