Examining Liam Hendriks slow start: Does the 15-year vet deserve the role he wants?

Fan-Favorite Liam Hendriks has struggled in his return to the mound

  

    After a rough outing against the Mets in which Hendriks left the 7th with the bases loaded and no outs, many were quick to point to Hendriks pregame comments regarding his usages. The 15-year vet had previously voiced his frustrations about how Cora and the pitching staff had used him out of the bullpen. Once a top-end closer, it seems as if Hendriks has been relegated to a back of the bullpen role. He expressed his desire to pitch in more high-leverage situations, claiming he should be "pitching like [he] will rust before he wears out"

    But, at the end of the day, Hendriks has failed to instill confidence in Cora and Red Sox fans alike, and his outing Wednesday did nothing but prove that point. Hendriks has pitched in 11 games this season after spending all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John. In those 11 games, he has a 5.56 ERA and an unconvincing 4.14 FIP. Hendriks is also sporting a 4.76 BB/9, his highest of his career by about a walk per nine. While the sample size is small, Hendriks has so far looked like a shell of his former self. 

    His struggles are pretty easily explainable by a simple bout of poor command. Walks are up, strikeouts are done, and Hendriks has been unable to regain his elite command from his time in Chicago. This season, Hendriks has a first strike% of 58.3%, down from his career average of 63.3%. Hendriks has seen himself behind in the count for 26 of the 48 total batters he has faced, with hitters hitting .350 of him in those situations. To contrast, a first pitch strike drops that average down to .158, and while a BB% of 9 is still concerning, it is clear Hendriks should game-plan to throw more first pitch strikes. 

    Another area of concern comes from Hendriks stuff in particular. His stuff+ of 95 is well below his career average of 116, and his fastball/slider combo are both down around 20 points of stuff+ from his career average. His fastball has lost about 2mph from his prime, with his slider losing just under 3. While he has upped his slider use by around 10%, the pitched is generating 12% more linedrives and 11% less groundballs than average. This coincides with a general trend in batted ball data, as Hendriks is allowing more linedrives and less grounballs than wanted. His slider has never had a great movement profile, and with the velocity going down and usage going up its not hard to see why that pitch isn't doing as well. 

    Or is it. Contrary to what you may think, Hendriks slider has been an effective pitch. The league has a .250/.308/.250 slash line against it, good for an OPS of just .558. The pitch has been a plus for Hendriks, getting a swinging strike rate of 26.7%, not too far off from his prime numbers in Chicago. His fastball, on the other hand, has been his problem pitch. Hitters are whiffing on just 3.8% of the fastballs he has thrown, well down from his career average. The 92% contact rate, while exaggerated by a small sample size, is also alarming, as hitters have a .772 OPS against the heater. 

    The solution to this might be for Bailey and the pitching staff to introduce another fastball into Hendriks arsenal. That could mean the return of his sinker, a pitch he hasn't thrown since 2019. While it was never effective when he threw it, we've seen Bailey give sinkers to Bello and Houck that have been successful, Another option could be a cutter, which could be make him more effective against lefties as well. All in all, Hendriks slow start has likely been a product of rust and bad luck, as he is rocking a .310 BABIP. While it's unlikely we will see Hendriks return to his All-Star form in a Red Sox jersey, some small adjustments, and maybe giving in and letting Hendriks pitch more, could help him regain his command and return to a medium-high leverage role. For now, he has done nothing to justify a spot as a premier reliever in what is shaping up to be a pretty solid bullpen.