A breakdown of the Garrett Crochet trade, why I think it is a major win for the Red Sox

Garrett Crochet traded to Red Sox
Garrett Crochet at All Star Weekend, MLB.Com

The Rundown

On December 13th, the Red Sox finally made good on their promise to upgrade the rotation by dealing for Chicago White-Sox All-Star Garrett Crochet. Crochet was a starter for the first time and he threw 146 innings with a 3.58era and a 2.69 fip. He had a 115 era+ meaning he was pretty much 15% better than the avg pitcher. He placed in the 91 percentile for expected ERA, the 92 for fastball velo, the 97th for strikeout rate, the 87th for walk rate, and his fastball was the second best pitch in all of MLB. Pretty much dude is a dog. He’s also only 25 with 2 more years of team control, meaning he doesn’t hit free agency until 2027 and he’s only going to make 3-5 million for the next 2 seasons. He's also a lefty, which we need as we have no lefty starters. To contrast, the Yankees just paid max fried, the best lefty in free agency this year who’s 30 yrs old, 218 million for 8 years. So pretty much we got a very good, young, cheap starting pitcher who will probably only get better in an organization with better pitching development. We did have to give up a pretty big return though. We gave up Kyle teel (our #4 prospect and MLBs number 25) Braden Montgomery (5 BOS 54MLB) Chase Meidroth (8 BOS) and Wikelman Gonzalez (18 BOS). That’s a pretty big haul but not too bad.

Looking Back at Chris Sale

For reference, in 2016 we traded for Chris Sale from the white sox, the team we are also getting crochet from. Sale was 27 at the time and much more established, having pitched to a 3.34 ERA in 226 innings and coming with 5 straight all star appearances ( last year was Crochet’s first as a starting pitcher, there are questions of durability and longevity). Sale also only had one year left on a larger contract with 2 more option years, totaling 38 million, much more than we are paying for crochet. In that trade, we gave up Yoan Moncada (#1 BOS and #1 MLB at the time) Michael Kopech (#2 BOS #67 MLB) and two mid tier prospects. None of those guys panned out and none are on the white sox anymore. We gave them higher ranked prospects for a guy pretty comparable.

Did we really give up that much?

Another reason I think this is a good trade is cause I don’t think any of those guys are really all that needed. Teel is a very good catching prospect but he was just okay in his late stent in AAA last year (.255 avg .717 ops across 28 games) and Connor Wong is a serviceable catcher. He hit .280 with a .750 ops last year. Sure his underlying numbers say he’s an average to below average hitter and god awful defender but we don’t need much production out of the catcher spot with our high powered lineup. Teel is also a lefty. We have way too many left handed hitters we do not need anymore. I would rather we stick with Wong and maybe try to upgrade through free agency. Montgomery was our first round pick last year but has yet to play a professional game as he broke his ankle in the college World Series. Yeah he was great for Texas A&M (.323 avg in 68 games his junior year) but a guy like that just isn’t very protectable. They are going off pretty much nothing by taking him. We also have a complete logjam in the outfield. Duran, Wilyer Abreau and Ceddane Rafeala are all very young and very good baseball players who all play great defense and will stick in the outfield for a pretty long time. We also have the number 1 overall prospect in MLB (Roman Anthony) waiting to take one of the outfield spots very soon. We do not need another outfielder and Montgomery doesn’t project to be an elite hitter that we can stick at DH. Meirdoth was really good in AAA last year (.298 avg) and plays a position of need (2B) but we already have a much better 2B prospect in Kristen Campbell. Campbell was just named the minor league prospect of the year after hitting .330 with a .997 ops across A,AA, and AAA. In his last 19 games at AAA, he hit .286 with an .898 ops. The Athletic had them as the 4th best in MLB and MLB.com has him as the 10th. We didn’t really need Meirdoth. Gonzalez is a pitcher who struggled in AA .

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cora talks Kristian Campbell's early struggles and Connor Wong's offseason changes

Image
        Kristian Campbell's Early Struggles     Kristian Campbell, MLB's Minor League player of the year, came into camp this year with lofty expectations and a starting spot on the MLB roster within reach. So far, he has not lived up to those massive expectations. In todays Spring Training contest against the Orioles, Campbell snapped an 0-13 start, notching his first spring hit in a 1-3 game.      Alex Cora, when discussing the young prospect, showed his confidence in Campbell's ability to turn things around. "I think the good thing is we have a pretty good idea of what he needs. We talked to him, [telling him] you need to swing less."      So far, Campbell has 8 strikeouts in his first 13 at-bats. Cora cited his swing decisions and his 2-strike approach as something for them to work on. Campbell's 19% K-rate across A, AA, and AAA was in line with league averages. His outside zone swing percentage was also well below league a...
Read more

Analyzing the candidates for the last bullpen spot down the stretch

Image
        All in all, the Red Sox bullpen has performed well above expectations this season. Anchored by offseason acquisition Aroldis Chapman turning back the clock a decade or so, the Sox have gotten good performance from a number of relievers, with Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert, Justin Wilson, and Steven Matz all performing well. Despite this, the Red Sox bullpen has seemed rather top heavy at times. While there is reason for optimism, such as the imminent return of Justin Slaten and the hope Jordan Hicks can find something, too many times has the Red Sox bullpen depth cost them games. A prime example comes in the form of Saturdays 7-5 win over Miami. With a 5 run lead in the 9th, Isiah Campbell could only record 2 outs while allowing 3 runs and forcing Cora to turn to Chapman with the tying run at the plate. This led to Chapman being unavailable to pitch in Sunday;s game, where the Red Sox blew a 3-2 lead in the 9th in a game they would lose 5-3. We've ...
Read more

Could Marcelo Mayer be the answer at second?

Image
       On Wednesday, the Red Sox optioned Vaughn Grissom to minor league camp, seemingly leaving the second base position down to 2. Instead, a potential new option has emerged in the form of top prospect Marcelo Mayer. Mayer made his second base debut as a substitute on Tuesday, before getting the start on Wednesday. The 22 year old has been on fire from the plate this spring, hitting .355 with a 1.025 OPS. In 77 AA games, Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS.      Although he has never played second at the professional level, Mayer is confident he can adjust. "Everything is backwards compared to short and third base. But I'm athletic, I think I could figure it out pretty quickly."       Mayer has never played anything other than third base or shortstop. Due to his bigger frame and below-average speed, some evaluators picture him as a long term third basemen. Mayer's quick first step and athleticism should make the transition across the...
Read more