Red Sox Report

       After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too?      The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside...

         In 30 starts last year, Tanner Houck ended with a 3.12 ERA and the second most WAR on the team at 3.9. In a widely under-appreciated season, Houck pitched like an ace for us. This year, Houck was slated as the number 2 starter, behind offseason addition Garret Crochet. Coming off of a rough spring, Houck's struggles continued into the regular season, allowing 4 runs against Texas and 3 runs against Baltimore, while really struggling to keep the ball in the park. So what is up with Houck, and how should we view his strong start Wednesday against Toronto?      Through 3 starts, Houck's sweeper has lost about 2 inches of horizontal break. Even with that loss, the sweeper has still been his most used, and best, pitch. Hitters are so far hitting .208 off it, with a 36% whiff, 6% higher than last year. Houck's struggles so far lie in his secondaries. While his splitter, his best secondary last year, has maintained its vertical drop, i...

          After a slow spring, MLB's #6 prospect has come out of the gates swinging to begin his rookie season. Through 7 games, Campbell is hitting .417 with 2 home runs, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. On Wednesday, Campbell signed an 8 year, $60 million deal with options for a 9th and 10th year. That deal looks like a steal. Among qualified hitters, Campbell has the second highest OPS in the league, behind teammate Wilyer Abreu. So how has Campbell been able to start this hot, and will it continue?      Campbell's swing, which is about half an inch shorter than league average, combined with his strength, which gives him a fast swing rate (swing's faster than 75 mph) 17% higher than league average, has made it hard for opposing pitchers to find a weakness for them to exploit. In the first two games of the season, Texas attacked him with mainly fastballs and sliders, throwing the heater upwards of 30% each game and the slider 42% in game 2. Campbe...

       While Rafael Devers is getting the majority of the blame for the Red Sox slow start, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, and Ceddanne Rafeala are a combined 5-63 to begin the year. Those 4, plus Devers, are hitting .061 on the year. While stats at the start of the season are typically exaggerated and highlighted, this is not something that we can ignore. Here's whats been going on with those 5 hitters.      Rafael Devers:      Devers set the record with the most strikeouts in a teams first 5 games, going down 15 times in his 19 at-bats. It's one of the top stories in all of baseball, and for good reason. Going back to last season, Devers has 26 strikeouts in his last 9 games. He has 1 hit in that stretch. Much of what Devers has been dealing with comes down to his timing. His bat speed is down 2 mph from last year, and it shows. His 48% contact% is down nearly 30 points from his career average. He quite frankly just isn't hi...