The 95th Percentile

      After a disappointing 10-17 start, the Red Sox have parted ways with manager Alex Cora, as well as hitting coach Pete Fatse, third base coach Kyle Hudson, and first base coach Ramon Vazquez. Game plan and run prevention coach Jason Varitek, who has spent nearly 30 seasons with the organization, has been reassigned to a new role. AAA Worcester manager Chad Tracy will step in as interim manager for the time being.      The Red Sox hired Cora prior to the 2018 season, a season in which the Red Sox won 108 games and walked through the playoffs in route to a World Series championship. Since that season however, the Red Sox have made the playoffs just twice, and finished dead last in the AL East 3 times (including the shortened 2020 season).       Since that 2018 season, the Red Sox have struggled to find the organizational consistency that was so important to the Red Sox teams of the 2000s and 2010s. They have traded multiple star, home...

    Rejoice! Baseball is back! The 2026 MLB season kicked off last Wednesday, and new data is already being plugged into Whiff+ and other models which I will get into later. Anyways, here's a quick update on Whiff+ and some other projects I've been working on. Whiff+ Expansion     Whiff+ has been expanded to include every major pitch type, using the same methods I went over in the original Heat+ article. All of the non-fastball models are very much in their newest stage, and I haven't taken much time to go in and refine them. That being said, they are correlating well with whiff rates.       Sorry for the blurryness of that image, I'm looking for a new site to host this blog. Anyways, correlations are strong and show that high Whiff+ numbers correlate very well with whiff rates. Splitters have the best correlation, at an R value of .742. Slider is the lowest at .56. All are between .56 and .75.           I have a...

    About a month ago, I released my first writeup on my initial stuff model Heat+. Since then, in between class and spring break, I've made some major upgrades and fundamental changes to the model that have greatly improved whiff rate prediction power. I've also renamed the model, from Heat+ to Whiff+ because I think that sounds better and is more descriptive of what the model tracks. In terms of future changes, I would like to implement a location aspect to my model, as fastballs at the top of the zone are much more effective.  Fundamental Change      The biggest change made comes from what outcome the model is being trained to look for. Stuff+, Heat+ and PitchingBot are trained on Run Value, meaning it looks at the true outcome of the pitch. Whiff+ is trained Whiff Probability, meaning it looks at whether or not the batter made contact with the pitch. This removes a lot of external factors and focuses more on the physical qualities of the pitch and its a...

          A few weeks ago, Camden Quick, who I will be interning with on the cape this summer, developed his own Stuff+ model to use in college ball. Taking after him, I’ve been working on my own pitch model. This is the first iteration of the model, and I plan on creating a better viewing application to go alongside with. With that being said, here is the preliminary version of Heat+.      Heat+ is a pitch model designed only for fastballs at the moment. Heat+ was created in R, using XGBoost’s gradient boosting techniques to capture more. I took fastball data from 2023, 2024, and 2025, giving my model 3 different seasons to work with. The model is trained to predict the run value of a certain pitch. To define the run value, I used statcasts built in run value metric, “delta_run_exp”. This is the change in run expectancy from before the pitch to after the pitch. For a more detailed explanation on how pitch models such as this are made, read ...

  We'll continue our offseason grades with the National League Central, where the Cubs look to overtake the Brewers for the top spot. But watch out for a pair of teams who look to jump into contention in the expanded wild card era.  Chicago Cubs: A The Cubs had an impressive offseason despite losing one of the best players in baseball in Kyle Tucker. Alex Bregman was the headline signing, and will provide right handed power to go along with Michael Busch. His leadership skills are also a major plus to a young Cubs team. Trading for Edward Cabrera gives the Cubs one of the highest upside rotations, albeit one that comes with major health questions. Justin Steele will return at some point in the first half, but he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2023. Cabrera has a lengthy injury history, and rookie talent Cade Horton missed the Cubs wild card round. The Cubs return breakout starter Matthew Boyd, as well as Shota Imanaga, who accepted the qualifying offer from the Cubs. The...

Wi th pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in just a few days, the offseason is all but over. There are still a handful of high impact free agents left on the market, and late trades are always certain, but it's just about time to hand out some offseason grades. I'll start here with the NL East, which is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Atlanta Braves: B The Braves signed one of my favorite players heading into the offseason in utility man Mike Yastrzemski, who can play all over the diamond. They pair him with another great utility man in Mauricio Dubon, giving them one of the best benches in the league. The injury of Ha-Seong Kim hurts, but Dubon and Jorge Mateo should do well enough at SS until Kim gets back. I like Robert Suarez as a pitcher, but giving him a 3 year deal is certainly an interesting choice, especially for a 34 year old reliever who throws his fastballs 75% of the time. The biggest question is if the Braves rotation can ...

        All in all, the Red Sox bullpen has performed well above expectations this season. Anchored by offseason acquisition Aroldis Chapman turning back the clock a decade or so, the Sox have gotten good performance from a number of relievers, with Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert, Justin Wilson, and Steven Matz all performing well. Despite this, the Red Sox bullpen has seemed rather top heavy at times. While there is reason for optimism, such as the imminent return of Justin Slaten and the hope Jordan Hicks can find something, too many times has the Red Sox bullpen depth cost them games. A prime example comes in the form of Saturdays 7-5 win over Miami. With a 5 run lead in the 9th, Isiah Campbell could only record 2 outs while allowing 3 runs and forcing Cora to turn to Chapman with the tying run at the plate. This led to Chapman being unavailable to pitch in Sunday's game, where the Red Sox blew a 3-2 lead in the 9th in a game they would lose 5-3. We've ...

          After homering in back to back games this week against the Astro's, Romans triple slash sat at an impressive .286/.406/.451. Yet somehow you feel there is more in the tank? Coming into this series, Anthony had hit just 2 homeruns in his first 200 PAs. And so, despite the otherworldly on base ability, you wouldn't be wrong to say the best is yet to come from the 21 yr old.       According to baseball savant, Roman Anthony has a pull air %, or how many fly balls Anthony pulls, of just 13.6%. Well below the average 16.7%. Moreover, Anthonys 52% GB rate and 39.7% Topped rate indicate the slugger has yet to establish himself as a consistent linedrive and homerun threat. This may be in part to his surprising struggles with pitches over the heart of the plate, notching a -5 run value on such pitches. This should improve as Anthony faces more pitching, but could be accelerated if he were to swing the bat more. His zone swing% of 5...

Fan-Favorite Liam Hendriks has struggled in his return to the mound         After a rough outing against the Mets in which Hendriks left the 7th with the bases loaded and no outs, many were quick to point to Hendriks pregame comments regarding his usages. The 15-year vet had previously voiced his frustrations about how Cora and the pitching staff had used him out of the bullpen. Once a top-end closer, it seems as if Hendriks has been relegated to a back of the bullpen role. He expressed his desire to pitch in more high-leverage situations, claiming he should be "pitching like [he] will rust before he wears out"      But, at the end of the day, Hendriks has failed to instill confidence in Cora and Red Sox fans alike, and his outing Wednesday did nothing but prove that point. Hendriks has pitched in 11 games this season after spending all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John. In those 11 games, he has a 5.56 ERA and an unconvincing 4.14 FIP. Hendriks ...

       After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too?      The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside...

         In 30 starts last year, Tanner Houck ended with a 3.12 ERA and the second most WAR on the team at 3.9. In a widely under-appreciated season, Houck pitched like an ace for us. This year, Houck was slated as the number 2 starter, behind offseason addition Garret Crochet. Coming off of a rough spring, Houck's struggles continued into the regular season, allowing 4 runs against Texas and 3 runs against Baltimore, while really struggling to keep the ball in the park. So what is up with Houck, and how should we view his strong start Wednesday against Toronto?      Through 3 starts, Houck's sweeper has lost about 2 inches of horizontal break. Even with that loss, the sweeper has still been his most used, and best, pitch. Hitters are so far hitting .208 off it, with a 36% whiff, 6% higher than last year. Houck's struggles so far lie in his secondaries. While his splitter, his best secondary last year, has maintained its vertical drop, i...

          After a slow spring, MLB's #6 prospect has come out of the gates swinging to begin his rookie season. Through 7 games, Campbell is hitting .417 with 2 home runs, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. On Wednesday, Campbell signed an 8 year, $60 million deal with options for a 9th and 10th year. That deal looks like a steal. Among qualified hitters, Campbell has the second highest OPS in the league, behind teammate Wilyer Abreu. So how has Campbell been able to start this hot, and will it continue?      Campbell's swing, which is about half an inch shorter than league average, combined with his strength, which gives him a fast swing rate (swing's faster than 75 mph) 17% higher than league average, has made it hard for opposing pitchers to find a weakness for them to exploit. In the first two games of the season, Texas attacked him with mainly fastballs and sliders, throwing the heater upwards of 30% each game and the slider 42% in game 2. Campbe...

       While Rafael Devers is getting the majority of the blame for the Red Sox slow start, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, and Ceddanne Rafeala are a combined 5-63 to begin the year. Those 4, plus Devers, are hitting .061 on the year. While stats at the start of the season are typically exaggerated and highlighted, this is not something that we can ignore. Here's whats been going on with those 5 hitters.      Rafael Devers:      Devers set the record with the most strikeouts in a teams first 5 games, going down 15 times in his 19 at-bats. It's one of the top stories in all of baseball, and for good reason. Going back to last season, Devers has 26 strikeouts in his last 9 games. He has 1 hit in that stretch. Much of what Devers has been dealing with comes down to his timing. His bat speed is down 2 mph from last year, and it shows. His 48% contact% is down nearly 30 points from his career average. He quite frankly just isn't hi...

       On Wednesday, the Red Sox optioned Vaughn Grissom to minor league camp, seemingly leaving the second base position down to 2. Instead, a potential new option has emerged in the form of top prospect Marcelo Mayer. Mayer made his second base debut as a substitute on Tuesday, before getting the start on Wednesday. The 22 year old has been on fire from the plate this spring, hitting .355 with a 1.025 OPS. In 77 AA games, Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS.      Although he has never played second at the professional level, Mayer is confident he can adjust. "Everything is backwards compared to short and third base. But I'm athletic, I think I could figure it out pretty quickly."       Mayer has never played anything other than third base or shortstop. Due to his bigger frame and below-average speed, some evaluators picture him as a long term third basemen. Mayer's quick first step and athleticism should make the transition across the...

      With Rafael Devers recently putting out the fire on the "third base is mine" debacle, a new hole has opened up at second base for the Red Sox. When Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, many suspected he would start at second with Devers making a hard claim for the hot corner. But a delayed start and nagging shoulders mean it looks like Devers has ceded the position and agreed to see some time at DH. This leaves the only hole in the lineup at second base.      Last season, Enmanuel Valdez led the team at WAR for second basemen, with a measly -.6 Wins Above Replacement. With Valdez no longer on the roster, the Red Sox have no one rostered who played more than 40 games at the big league level at second base last season. The battle seems to be down to just 3 players, that being Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, and Kristian Campbell.     Coming into camp, Campbell was an early favorite to crack the big league roster in some way. MLB.com's #7 Over...